信息来源：http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/08/14/confirmed-aol-acquires-lifestreaming-service-socialthing/

Socialthing与FriendFeed类似，帮助用户把各个社区网站的消息（包括自己的也包括别人的）聚合起来，也就是所谓的llife streaming（在线生活记录），目前能够聚合的站点包括Flickr、Twitter、Facebook、 Livejournal、Pownce、Vimeo等。除了消息聚合以外，socialthing还增加了信息发布功能，也就是可以直接往twitter、facebook、livejournal、pownce上面发消息。Socialthing此前曾获得风险投资公司TechStars的投资。

发展好的话，下个热点之一，目前的应用中已经出现了明显的趋势。

比如：

当然，包括其他平台，比如51、天涯等。

By Lynch

无线社交网络将是未来的一个亮景，相信会是下一个百亿美元市值中国公司诞生地。

当然，这里的竞争也非常激烈，比如QQ， 51， 校内，等。

================================================

根据全球资深调研机构iSuppli的调查，无线社交网络将对世界的科技产业带来划时代冲击，且将会重新塑造全球屏幕及半导体产业的样貌。到2020年时，整个无线社交网络的产业链包括产品、服务、程序、零件、广告，会创造出超过2.5万亿美元以上的收益。iSuppli相信，能够搭上无线社交网络这列顺风车的科技产业，将会在业界独领风骚，而跟不上潮流的将会渐渐被淘汰。无线社交网络聚集了一群有着相同兴趣的网络使用者，像是MySpace以及Facebook都是相当成功的案例。这两个社交网站展现了无线社交网络强大的吸引力，尤其对那些年轻、时尚、或爱好新科技的年轻人来说，MySpace和Facebook给了他们很大的挥洒空间。

iSuppli总裁Derek-Lidow指出，在接下来的10年内，手机之类的行动装置将是人们浏览网络内容的主要工具，也因此，社交网络将转移到无线通讯的平台上，满足人们无时无刻都可以存取社交网络的需求。这样的转变将会带动新一波社交网络新程序的设计，使得更多人被社交网络的功能所吸引，最终会给社交网络产业带来收益。无论是对消费者或厂商而言，在无线通讯装置的带动下，10年以内社交网络将会成为双方都不可或缺的产品。在2009到2015年这段期间，新科技将引发全新的程序设计，使得社交网络的概念将会被大量应用在厂商的新产品上，使这领域的收益大增。

iSuppli的分析师指出，当这样的互动延伸到商业行为时，网络社群就成了一个极有效率的买卖平台。除此之外，网络社群还可以成为公司同事间交换工作信息的地方，以及在网络上开虚拟会议。社交网络的发展将带动新一波的手机革命，新上市的手机将搭载可以使用社交网络的各项机能，包括与网友对话、分享有趣事物、浏览网页内容等等。iSuppli预测，到2018年时，这样的趋势会使手机主宰了行动上网配备市场。此外，生产手机所需的各种产业诸如屏幕、半导体、记忆卡也将会受到很大的影响。多样化的社交网络程序，像是游戏及工作社群，会使手机的屏幕科技益发重要。新崛起的科技像是触控式屏幕、软性显示器、及融合动态感知器的屏幕将被安装在不同的手机平台上，除了负责传统的显示功能外，也接受使用者所下的指令。

Lidow指出，在社群网络及科技演进潮流的推波助澜下，屏幕会成为手机产业链里最具有产值的部分，因为手机厂商都想用较高品质的面板来使它们的产品更特出。半导体产业也会面临结构性变化，它们必须竭力提供能够符合社交网络需求的芯片。此种芯片极端复杂，且必须颠覆半导体产业奉为圭臬的摩尔定律。由于需求激增，迫使半导体产业必须加紧脚步，研发出效能卓越且高度整合的多核心处理器。

网址：http://pupe.jp/

Poupeegirl是日本去年初推出的一个女性时尚交流的SNS网站。推出后深受女性欢迎：会员很快超过10万、月浏览量超6000万、平均一人一天在网站上点击浏览200个窗口、最受关注的网站排名NO.1…….等等。

Poupeegirl成功捕捉女性喜欢装扮及购物的心态。①用户注册后，即可获得一个Avatar。利用站内的虚拟货币Ribbons来购买虚拟时尚衣物等装饰品为Avatar装扮。Avatar形象，可以获取HTML代码贴在MSN头像或自己的blog等外部网站上。

②虚拟货币Ribbons需要用户上传服饰、化妆品、首饰等时尚相关照片、交流装扮心得等途径赚取。

用户上载后的服饰图片，会分门别类，按照品牌和类别，存放在你的衣柜 (CLOSET) 中,，这样就更方便和你的好友互相分享心得及交流。

poupeegirl的设计，无疑是鼓励女士们在逛街，若看见喜欢的衣物服饰等时尚物品，可以利用手机实时拍照, 然后上载到网站和好友分享。照片投稿是获得虚拟货币的途径，也是展示自己个人品位的绝好机会。因此，大部分Poupeegirl的女性们，都挑选自己最得意的物品拿出来发表，而不会为了得到积分而贴落伍的东西。

在商品极大丰富的现代社会，大部分女性们都拥有连自己也数不清数目的服饰、化妆品、手袋、首饰等。同时，现代女性也不再单纯的“为悦己者容”，她们独立、自信、追求美丽的事物，享受时尚带来的乐趣。也正是因此，时尚变得更加个性化的同时，也更加个人化，时尚越来越像是“自言自语式”的“自我满足”，缺少了分享的乐趣和途径。

也许Poupeegirl的成功之处正是在于抓住了女性喜欢与人分享，希望得到关注的心理，建立分享的平台。让自己心爱的物品拥有更多的观众；通过观看他人物品照片获得最新的流行情报；寻找志同道合的朋友或是学习模仿的对象；依每天心情给虚拟形象换衣服……。

相比其他SNS网站，Poupeegirl用户不是比拥有多少朋友，而是更在乎自己发布的物品照片受到多少关注， 给Avatar的装扮获得多少肯定和点击率。要想成为Poupeegirl的人气者，首先得修炼时尚品位。

很酷的创意，通过短信来买书

http://www.duangou.com

亚马逊有类似服务服务：TextBuyIt。

http://www.sina.com.cn 2008年06月26日 21:53 《中国企业家》杂志

　　不管你在哪个行业、身处哪个城市，只要你是以创新的方式在创业，这就是最好的时代

　　文 | 本刊记者 潘虹秀

　　尽管TMT、医药、消费、能源、环保、矿产等领域仍是未来一段时期内VC们的投资热点，但很多VC的投资倾向已开始超越具体的行业。

　　这是他们经历过数个投资泡沫的一大反思。“2005年，WEB2.0曾经那么热，估值那么高，投资额度那么大。现在看来，抢到那些项目，未必就好。”智基创投的合伙人陈友忠评价道。一位地产界的投资者近日向记者一一列举他去年在经济型酒店和房地产行业中没能抢到的项目后，唏嘘不已地说道：“没投资成，是好事。”那些被他点名的项目，如今都遇到了很大的问题，成了当年那些“幸运”投资者的心头之痛。

　　“无论是高科技还是传统行业，我们更看重的是创新性和成长性。”深圳创新投资集团（以下简称深创投）的总裁李万寿说道。深创投是本土最大的VC机构。红杉中国资本的创始合伙人张帆也持类似观点。他认为：“在中国，创新型经济刚刚起步，还有很大的提升空间。”赛富的首席合伙人阎焱说道：“我们什么都可以投。”对那些在各行各业进行着创新的创业者们来说，他们能获得的融资机会要比过去多很多。

　　杀往“二三线”

　　“现在，从北京飞往南昌的航班总是爆满。”金沙江创投的合伙人潘晓峰就为这种爆满做出了贡献。这一年多以来，他频繁地飞往南昌，那里有金沙江所投资的晶能光电企业。他发现现在有很多风投都去南昌寻找机会。这与数年前，潘刚刚跟光电接触时的情况完全不一样。

　　“过去大家只关注广（州）、深（圳）、（北）京、沪几大中心城市，现在更多的VC去二三线城市寻找投资机会。”智基创投的合伙人陈友忠说道。在陈看来，这种变化很大程度上是因为VC行业竞争所致。

　　受国内资本市场热潮的驱动，大量的资金、大量的新人涌进了这个行业。一年前，这还是中文夹杂英文、穿衬衫打领带、手握大把美元、享有“造雨人”和“鹰眼”美誉的VC明星们的天下。一年后，突然冒出一大群从未做过风险投资的“土鳖”，抱着大把人民币，高喊着“PE靠酒量、VC靠胆量”，冲杀进来。那些潜藏多年的本土风险投资也突然浮出了水面。

　　这些没有在国外风险投资企业做过的本土新势力，大多得到了江苏、浙江、广东几大省的民营企业的资金支持。受投资方的影响，他们也更加关注民营老板们所关注的二三线城市的投资机会。最重要的是，他们在这些领地有着深厚的关系网络，比学生时期就留洋的海归派VC有着更本地化的洞察能力。这些富有民营老板本身的创业成功也大大增加了VC们对二三线城市的投资信心。有着本土风投支持的金风科技(36.90,-2.43,-6.18%,吧)、紫金矿业(8.08,0.09,1.13%,吧)、洛钼等在资本市场给风投带来的高回报，刺激着很多的海归派VC将目光投向了更广大的内陆省份。

　　“即使是偏远的内陆也可以有创新的商业模式，你看新疆的美克美家不就做得很好吗？”一位海归派VC说道。而一家本土的财务顾问也看到VC们的这种需求，将投融会开到了苏州、无锡等中小城市。他感叹道：“来的VC一次比一次多，有时参会的VC的数量都超过了企业数量。”这种局面，完全不同于大城市举办的投融会，那里最普遍的风景是企业家们在投融会上满场追着VC跑。

　　回归早期项目

　　“早期项目的投资机会更多。”去年下半年，丁健在接受《中国企业家》记者采访时曾说道。他所在的金沙江创投专注于早期项目。彼时，业界正出现了VC PE化、PE VC化现象。金沙江有点鹤立鸡群。

　　不过，现在更多的人站在了丁健一边。“我以前做了很多TMT项目，现在基本不考虑了，除非是非常早期的项目。”陈镇洪说道。陈于去年下半年离开了他的老东家集富亚洲，在香港创立了天泉私募资本。

　　陈转身早期主要是出于差异化竞争的考虑：“并购领域基本是KKR、黑石的天下。成长期项目有了赛富、鼎晖等不错的创投。我们是新基金，现在规模还小，就做做早期项目。”当然，陈也指望就此能打响天泉这个中国人自己创立的基金品牌。红杉、KPCB在美国的声誉，无一不是因其所投的早期项目最终成为了伟大公司。

　　其实，在过去的很多年，VC在中国投资的基本都是早期项目。这两年，投资增长型阶段VC越来越多，投资的金额也越来越大。IDG的熊晓鸽给出了一个数据：“2006年，在中国的324个项目获得了170.8亿美元，平均每个项目获得了550万美元的投资。2007年，项目均额达到了750万美元。”过去，二三百万美元的投资比比皆是。这种变化产生的原因，主要是因为经过二十多年的积淀，中国有一大批民营企业的规模达到了千万美元级别，利润也有了上百万美元。这促使了相当一批的VC去采摘看似没有什么风险的熟苹果。很多PE也将投资阶段前移，加入了采摘果实的行列。于是出现了VC、PE界限不明朗的现状。

　　不过从今年开始，越来越多的VC和PE认为：“好果子即将被采摘完。VC、PE不分的局面只是暂时的。最终大家都必须凭自己的专业技能生存。”

　　采摘果子变成了哄抢果实，促使一批VC下决心远离这个红海。一位VC感叹道：“市盈率已经从4倍上升到8倍，10倍甚至12倍。”在这种情况下，很多不好的项目也得到了很好的估值。

　　在这种状况下，陈玮把眼光看得更长远：“今年，我们看项目要比去年更严格。看企业5年、10年以上的增长。”去年，陈玮离开呆了七八年的深创投，下海成立了东方富海创投公司。他认为，有经验的VC可以在更早期的项目上发挥专业优势。张帆、李万寿持类似观点，更看好早期项目。张帆说道：“早期项目，现在反而是良性局面，有更广阔的空间。”

　　一位LP也支持VC们去看早期项目：“拟上市也不一定真能上市。即使（在国内）IPO了，(国内的《公司法》对VC )也会有一两年的锁定期。为什么不找个更好的早期项目投资？”

At the Social Gaming Summit recently, on the panel about Monetization and Business Models, David Perry mentioned that there were 29 business models for games that he was familiar with. I asked him to do a guest post listing them all and he agreed.

David Perry is a 27 year industry veteran whose games have sold over a billion dollars at retail. He’s the Chief Creative Officer of Acclaim Games, Inc. and prior to that was the founder of Shiny Entertainment, Inc. which was purchased by Atari. For more information, please visit: www.dperry.com

_______________________________________________________________________________
Potential Video Game Monetization Methods.

These models come from 25 years of watching people experiment with game monetization.

Note: The good news is there’s lots of choices and many of the models can be combined.

List © 2008 David Perry. www.dperry.com

1. Retail (bricks & mortar), selling boxed product at places like EBGames, Gamestop or Virgin Megastore. This also includes mom & pop stores, hardcore specialist gamer shops, and online retailers like Amazon.com that ship the product to your door. The gap in this market is “same day” physical delivery of games too big to download or 1st party titles (basically combining online & bricks and mortar in one solution.) The future of this space is pre-paid cards as the consoles will (in the future) go online only, distributing everything directly to the consumer, so retail (to make it worth selling the hardware) will need a cut of the software sales. Hence prepaid cards. The Gamestop tactic of re-selling USED games (to avoid paying for new product) will finally be over. To drive users to retail, the making of special “enhanced” versions just for their retail chain is a common practice.

2. Digital Distribution (direct download, direct to consumer), like the Steam service from Valve Software, the PlayStation Store or Xbox Live Arcade from Microsoft. This also technically includes “unlocking” access to a game already on a service, like the faux install process on Facebook (however the player would have to pay to do this unlock.)

3. In-Game Advertising (either obvious billboards or branded items in the game world, or subtle product placement (certain clothing, sunglasses or vehicles like Gaia Online), or built into story elements (like the hero’s girlfriend works for a Neutrogena). Companies like IGA, Massive, Game Jacket, Mochi Media, Google, VideoEgg etc.

4. Around-Game Advertising (basically making money from banner & skyscraper adverts that circle the gameplay window), this is common on flash game aggregator sites, they use services like Google, Commission Junction, personal affiliate deals etc. The revenue comes from CPM (cost per thousand views), CPC (cost per click), CPA (cost per acquisition of a player), CPP (cost for a “real” player who really plays for a certain time, or to a certain level.)

5. Pay Finder’s Fee from First Dollar. This allows you to pay much higher finders fees with no risk. Like offering (as the finder’s fee), the first $25 that comes in from any player they find. You balance the fee to a sensible percentage of the average income you get from players. We [Acclaim] get around $70 per paying player, so this seems reasonable.

6. Advertgames (the whole experience is an advert), common on movie websites, can also be big like America’s Army or the Burger King games on Xbox 360. I did one of the first of these called “Cool Spot” for 7-UP. The advertiser helps fund the game and depending on the deal, that determines who earns cash out of the revenue. Your reputation will impact this equation.

7. “Try Before you Buy” / Trialware / Shareware / Demoware / Timedware (this is letting you play crippled, shortened, or restricted time versions of a game for free, while trying to up-sell the full version.) This is a real balancing act as too much in the demo can kill any hope of future sales. Xbox Live has been experimenting with this concept, they seem to have hit the sweet spot by giving one playable level and then giving a big reveal (like there’s a giant boss monster around the corner) then they say “Buy the full version to continue!”. That’s basically the ‘cliff-hanger’ trick, and just like TV it works.

8. Episodic Entertainment (borrowing from the TV model), you either buy the episodes in a serial fashion as they become available, you can pay for all episodes unlocked for a period of time, or they are sold as expansion packs.

9. Skill-Based Progressive Jackpots (where players buy a ticket to enter into a tournament) this generates a progressive jackpot and winner who reaches a certain (winner) status wins the jackpot. You keep a percentage of the jackpots. The game must be skill based.

10. Velvet Rope or Member’s Club (where the user pays for VIP access), they get special privileges and access to special areas on your site or in your game. They sometimes get special access to new product before anyone else etc. (Basically the more interesting perks you give, the more likely people will want it.)

11. Subscription Model (like World of Warcraft or Conan) paid monthly, usually by credit card or automatic debit payment. It’s sometimes coupled with a retail purchase to get the install files / manual. Commonly players set up the credit card payments and don’t stop them, as they want to keep the game ‘available’ or keep their characters alive that they’ve worked so hard to create. (It’s pretty great to get a subscription from people that don’t even play, so expect more people to design games were they will clearly KILL your characters if you stop paying. Not good for players, but it’s on the list as it’s a monetization method.)

12. Micro-Transactions (small, impulse driven up selling), for vanity, saving time, better communications, leveling up faster etc. These are generally paid for using virtual points (earned in the game) or the points being bought by the player for real money. A new trend is using Friends to buy these items, where the item just costs you inviting a friend to the game, or an amazing item costs you inviting ALL your friends to the game. Another trend is to sell consumable items like actually selling the bullets you fire, or buying gas for the car you race, however this really grays the “free to play” line.

13. Sponsored Games / Donationware (serious games, games for good, charity games), these are the games that are somehow helping society, so could be paid for by a philanthropist, or by a charity or non-profit, or by player donations. www.Onebiggame.org is an example.

14. Pay per play / Pay as you go / Pay for Time (like the old arcade machine or pinball system), you only pay for what you need, for a pre-set number of lives, or as long as you can last. Also used in Internet Cafes and game parlors. This model could be used for game time online as well.

15. Player to Player trading of Virtual Items (letting them trade land, property, characters, items, also by auctions). You keep a cut of all the money exchanged. You also keep the transactions safe for the player (they don’t have to go to the gold farmers or risk the black market for characters.) Some games let the players cash this money out of the game, so it can become a full time job, but is also a major fraud generator (they use fake credit cards, buy things, trade things, sell for cash, cash out).

16. Foreign distribution deals (like the movie industry), where you need funding, so you pre-sell your foreign distribution rights in advance, then use that money to fund the project in the countries you care about the most. www.gameinvestors.com will be helping people do this.

17. Sell Access to your Players (like lead generation, special offers etc.), this is where you monetize your user database by inserting special offers, or personal profile questions into the registration loop. Like when you register, you’re asked if you would fill out a profile in return for virtual points. This is then paid for by an external agency who collects the data live. (Value is equal to how exclusive the data is, how detailed (revealing), and how fresh.) The agency would generally give you the questions and the capture code.

18. Freeware (get lots of users), it’s not a plan to make money, but then again, if you make something that’s very compelling you can expect offers to acquire your software, company or technology.

19. Loss Leader (focus on your real goal), meaning you sell the game far too cheap. There’s clearly TOO much value for money, (like the PS3 Hardware strategy). You use the passionate following to your free game to help sell something else, like a Toy, TV or movie deal, and that’s where the real money is that you were focused on.

20. Peripheral Enticement (the game cannot function without a piece of equipment), so it’s really a way to make you money on the hardware. (Gym equipment is a good example, like the virtual bike or rowing games, you tease them with the software into a very expensive purchase.)

21. Player to Player Wagering (they place wagers before they go head to head), the winner keeps the pot and you keep a percentage of every pot. The games they play MUST be skill based games. Gambling virtual items is another technique, where they buy/earn/trade virtual items, then bet them on maybe a 1-on-1 basketball game, the winner keeps the items. (You made your money selling the items to them in the first place.)

22. User Generated Content (letting users make endless new content), they can sell it to each other, or sell access to it, or get people to pay for time spent playing it, for points they can turn into cash (like IMVU), and you keep a cut of all sales.

23. Pay for Storage Space (on a server) to save progress, stats, game data etc. As an example, this can be used for Karaoke games where you pay to store your library of songs. (Or at least you think you do, even though you are technically just making virtual storage space for your songs.)

24. Pay for Private Game Server (where your friends come to play), like renting multi-player servers, or giving your friends a maximum quality experience. This is more for the hardcore First Person Shooter multi-player crowd.

25. Rental (stores like Blockbuster, or online like Gamefly), the old rental paradigm meant trying to design the game so it couldn’t be played through within one rental period. These days with the Netflix / Gamefly Model, it doesn’t matter anymore.

26. Licensing Access (like signing a deal with a chain of cyber cafes to unlock your game for their users.) Or using your game as a part of a TV show. Or letting a corporation use your brand in their advertising such as McDonald’s Line Rider commercial

27. Selling Branded Items from your site (using a service like Cafepress) - You need to work hard on your identity to make this interesting for people to wear. For example, Gamer Vixens http://www.cafepress.com/gamervixens/

28. Pre-Sell the Game to the Players. This model lets your fans actually fund the development of the title. For example, they pre-pay $5 in advance for a $50 game. (They also get to see it get developed and get to provide feedback.) When the game is launched, they get it for free (as they already paid the $5 advance.) Clearly you have to either have a reputation or a very hot idea to generate enough interest in advance, but once you get on a roll, this can work.

29. Buy Something, get the game for Free - This is the Trialpay model, where the player buys something they want (like a subscription to Gamefly), then Gamefly gives Trialpay a nice fat fee. From that fee, you get paid, and Trialpay gets paid. So by signing up to Gamefly, they get their service and they also get your game (technically) for free.

I’m sure there are plenty more models you’ve seen over the years, if you think of some I’ve missed, please email me at: dp@dperry.com

John Osher discussed What Not To Do: 17 most common mistakes start-ups make and how to avoid them in Entrepreneur Magazine. Each of the mistakes are a topic on their own, for example, I’ve trying to provide examples of high level market and financial analysis. Mistakes 1-8 focus on the market and financial requirements of a startup. Mistakes 9-10 focus on hiring and corporate management. Mistake 11 is about product design and technology. Mistakes 12-17 are about focus and vision. It is a very interesting read for building an appropriate mind-set for entrepreneurs.

1. Failing to spend enough time researching the business idea to see if it’s viable. “This is really the most important mistake of all. They say 9 [out] of 10 entrepreneurs fail because they’re undercapitalized or have the wrong people. I say 9 [out] of 10 people fail because their original concept is not viable. They want to be in business so much that they often don’t do the work they need to do ahead of time, so everything they do is doomed. They can be very talented, do everything else right, and fail because they have ideas that are flawed.”
2. Miscalculating market size, timing, ease of entry and potential market share. “Most new entrepreneurs get very excited over an idea and don’t look for the truth about how many people will want to buy it. They put together financial projections as part of a presentation to pump up their investors. They say, ‘The market size is 50 million people that could use this product, and if I could only sell to 2 percent of them, I’d be selling a million pieces.’ But 2 percent of a market is a lot. Most products sell way less than 1 percent.”
3. Underestimating financial requirements and timing. “They set their financial requirements based on Mistake 1, and they go ahead and make a commitment to this much office space and this many computers, and hire a vice president of sales, and so on. Before they know it, based on sales projections that were wrong to start with, they have created costs that require those projections to be met. So they run out of money.”
4. Overprojecting sales volume and timing. “They have already miscalculated the size of the market. Now they overproject their portion of it. They often say ‘There are 200 million homes, and I need to sell [to] x number of them.’ When you break it down, though, a much smaller number of those are really sales prospects. That makes it impossible to make their sales projections.”
5. Making cost projections that are too low. “Their cost projections are always too low. Part of the reason is that they project much higher sales. There are also unknown reasons that always come out that usually make costs higher than planned. So on top of everything, their margins are now lower.”
6. Hiring too many people and spending too much on offices and facilities. “Now you have lower sales, higher costs and too much overhead. These are the things that you see every day in companies that fail. And they all grow out of that first mistake: failing to research the size and viability of the opportunity.”
7. Lacking a contingency plan for a shortfall in expectations. “Even if you’re realistic in your estimates to start, there are things that happen when you start a new business. Your sales ideas may be no good; bank rates may go up; there may be a shipping strike. These aren’t the result of poor planning, but they happen. More often than not, entrepreneurs just feel that something will come along when they need it. They don’t have contingency plans for it not working out at the size and time they want.”
8. Bringing in unnecessary partners. “There are certain partners you need. For instance, you often need money, so you’re going to need money partners. But too many times, the guy with the idea takes on all his friends as partners. Many people don’t provide strategic advantages and don’t warrant ownership. But they’re all going to get 25 percent of the company. It’s totally unnecessary, and it’s a mistake. Before people are made partners, they have to earn it.”
9. Hiring for convenience rather than skill requirements. “In my first business or two, I hired relatives. It was easy to do, but in many cases, they were the wrong people [for the job]. And it’s hard to fire people, especially if they’re relatives or friends. More time needs to be spent handpicking people based on skill requirements. You really need super-skilled people who can wear more than one hat. It just bogs you down when you hire people who can’t do the job.”
10. Neglecting to manage the entire company as a whole. “You see this happen all the time. They’ll spend half their time doing something that represents 5 percent of their business. You have to have a view of your whole company. But too often, the person running it loses that view. They get involved in a part, and they don’t manage the whole. Whether I do this product or that product, whether I hire somebody, [I consider] how they [will] fit long term and short term in the big picture. Constantly try to see your big picture.”
11. Accepting that it’s “not possible” too easily rather than finding a way. “I had an engineer who was a very good engineer, but with every toy we developed, he would say, ‘You can’t do it that way.’ I had to be careful not to accept this too easily. I had to look further. If you’re an entrepreneur, you’re going to break new ground. A lot of people are going to say it’s not possible. You can’t accept that too easily. A good entrepreneur is going to find a way.”
12. Focusing too much on sales volume and company size rather than profit. “Too much of your management is often based on volume and size. So many entrepreneurs want to say ‘I have a company that’s this big, with this many people, this many square feet of space, and this much sales.’ It’s too much [emphasis] on how fast and big you can build a business rather than how much profit it can make. Bankers and investors don’t like this. Entrepreneurs are so into creating and building, but they also have to learn to become good [businesspeople].”
13. Seeking confirmation of your actions rather than seeking the truth. “This often happens: You want to do something, so you talk about it with people who work for you. You talk to [your] family and friends. But you’re only looking for confirmation; you’re not looking for the truth. You’re looking for somebody to tell you you’re right. But the truth always comes out. So we [test] our products, and we listen to what [the testers] say. We give much more value to the truth than to people saying what we’re doing is great.”
14. Lacking simplicity in your vision. “Many entrepreneurs go in too many directions at once and do not execute anything well. Rather than focusing on doing everything right to sell to their biggest markets, they divide the attention of their people and their time, trying to do too many things at [one time]. Then their main product isn’t done properly because they’re doing so many different things. They have an idea and say they’re going to sell it to Wal-Mart. Then they say they’re going to sell to [the] Home Shopping Network. And then the gift market looks good. And so on.”
15. Lacking clarity of your long-term aim and business purpose. “You should have an idea of what your long-term aim is. It doesn’t mean that won’t change, but when you aim an arrow, you have to be aiming at a target. This [concept will] often come up when people ask ‘How do I pick a product?’ The answer depends on what you’re trying to do. If you’re trying to [create] a billion-dollar company with this product, it may not have a chance. But if you’re trying to make a $5 million company, it can work. Or if you’re trying to create a company [in which] family members can be employed, it can work. Clarity of your business purpose is very important [but] is often not really part of the thought process.”
16. Lacking focus and identity. “This was written from the viewpoint of building the company as a valuable entity. The company itself is also a product. Too many companies try to go after too many targets at once and end up with a potpourri rather than a focused business entity with an identity. When you try to make a business, it’s very important to maintain a focus and an identity. Don’t let it become a potpourri, or it loses its power. For instance, you say, ‘We’re already selling to Kmart, so we might as well make a toy because Kmart buys toys.’ If you do that, the company becomes weaker. A company needs to be focused on what it is. Then its power builds from that.”
17. Lacking an exit strategy. “Have an exit plan, and create your business to satisfy that plan. For instance, I am thinking I might run my new business for two years and then get out of it. I think it’s an opportunity to make a tremendous amount of money for two years, but I’m not sure [whether] it’s proprietary enough to stop the competition from getting in. So I’m in with an exit strategy of doing it for two years and then winding down. I won’t commit to long-term leases, and after the first year, we’ll start watching the marketplace very closely and start watching inventories.

Posted June 8th @ 10:40 am by Micah

There are no hard and fast rules for startup success. There I said it.

Over the past week, I have been spending more and more time at the Techstars “Bunker.” A garden level office space in a hidden spot in Boulder where ten teams of startup hopefuls have gathered to learn from startup veterans.

I have met with 3-4 of the teams in different capacities. Sometimes its a formal meeting, sometimes it was a quick connect in a hallway.

When I go to Techstars, I sit and I listen. I hear conversations that I have now heard dozens of times in different formats and in different places.

When I go to Techstars, I sit and observe. I see who is working with movement, and who is working to keep busy. Its always easy to pick out the real from the fake, the wheat from the chaff, the cream from the milk.

I have read some great accounts by previous teams. Their insights are key to understanding their potential. Their thoughts reveal their focus.

I have watched teams continue to grow past Techstars. I have listened to the roar of accomplishment by some, the pomp without the circumstance by others. I have seen the teams that have been so laser focused on succeeding, regardless of the challenge, that they appear to disappear from the public eye.

I have seen the teams where personal ego has destroyed collective success. Where talking about what they would like to be seems to never match what they are. The teams that spend time most of their time waving their hands and imploring you to not look at the Man Behind the Curtain until the time is right, and once the Man Behind the Curtain is revealed, the world realized not only is he just a man, but he is a man that we have all seen a hundred times before.

I have been asked if Techstars is different than the natural process of other startups. Does the cauldron that all Techstars teams are thrown in, accelerate the success or failure of the startup?

The short answer is no; all startups have a natural life. Some live forever and some are killed in their cribs.

I have been asked, what makes for startup success? Startup success revolves around the process not the product, and for true startup success, there are three simple rules:

1) Listen and absorb.

Spend time each day asking someone a question you would like the answer to. Dont always ask the same person. But do ask the same question to multiple people.

Absorb their answers. Dont run off and do them. You are not asking to be dictated to, you are asking for an opinion. An educated guess. A knowledgeable response. Absorb and classify answers as such.

2) Make Decisions. Live With the Consequences.

Dont take forever to make a decision, but dont make it too fast. Be knowledgeable. Be decisive. The difficulty is not making a decision, its living with the consequences. The first decision we all make, each day, is “should I get out of bed?” The real question is “Can I live with the consequences today will bring?”

Revel in the consequences. It is there that success and failure live, not in the decisions we make.

3) Move Through Failure.

Failure is a process. Every day, fail. Fail again. Learn. Then fail again. That process will lead you towards success more quickly than anything else. Mistakes are never bad. Repeating mistakes is the worst thing you could ever do.

As an added bonus, here is the best question you could ever ask a mentor or someone you are hoping to learn from: “What do you suck at?”

Take a moment to enjoy the process, the cadence, the rhythm of startups. Its a unique experience that only a few truly understand and appreciate.

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原文如下：

I’m at the Fairmont Hotel in San Jose tonight, for the Churchill Club’s annual Top 10 Tech Trends Dinner. This is the club’s 10th annual tech trend panel. Making the picks:

• Steve Jurvetson, Draper Fisher Jurvetson.
• Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures.
• Josh Kopelman, First Round Capital.
• Roger McNamee, Elevation Partners.
• Joe Schoendorf, Accel Partners.
• Tony Perkins, of Always On, is the moderator.

Perkins, McNamee, Jurvetson and Schoendorf have done this before. Kopelman and Khosla are the panel newbies.

Apparently, you can watch this live at ustream.tv.

Or you can read along. Here’s the pundits’ list of trends, with some responses from their fellow panelists (It’s going to be a l-o-o-n-g post):

• 1. From Steve Jurvetson: “Demographics are destiny, creating opportunity.” Baby boomers are an opportunity, including an “eBay for information” that exceeds the market for physical goods. This is a U.S./Canada/U.K. trend. Baby boomers as the first Internet savvy seniors. Smart, active, group, entering AARP age. 75 million of them, half the U.S. workforce. In 2025, the entire country will look like Florida does today. Nothing will change that. Demographics are destiny. Over have of businesses and franchises are started by people in this group. At home, educated and Internet savvy. Services online will exceed market for goods online. Another market: the mental exercise market. If you are 35 or older, cognitive decline is at the same pace as 80 year olds. Khosla said he agrees on demographic trend, but not the opportunity; he doesn’t think it deserves to be in the top 10. McNamee says it could be an opportunity if you can package it. Schoendorf notes that people may be in retirement as long as they worked. He says it will create opportunities.
• 2. From Vinod Knosla: The mobile phone will be a mainstream personal computer. With built in projector. Authentication. Credit cards on SIM cards. ID cards, passports, drivers licenses. Any information you need. Khosla says he keeps pictures of his passport electronically on his phone. He says people will be less likely to carry their laptops. Come near a computer, and physical hard drive will be yours, including half-sent email message you left at home. Lose the phone, and all the information is on the network. Imagine what you want to do, and it should be available anytime. Projectors in cell phones in next two years. More than one camera per cell phone; high priority for Texas Instruments. Critical ingredient is high speed networks, which we will have in next 2-3 years. Jurvetson says the trends are already playing out, other than the projector piece, particularly in Europe, where cell phones are 8% of credit card payments. McNamee says Asia is where most of that functionality is already embedded; he says the carriers and the government puts this projection further out in North America. Schoendorf says he believes the trend; he says a good way to lose money is to bet against Vinod. “I’ve learned to listen when Vinod says something might change,” Schoendorf says.
• 3. From Josh Kopelman: The rise of the “implicit” Internet. Today your permanent record exists; you create a trail of data exhaust, digital bread crumbs. Implicit data that exists in silence. Movie rentals, restaurant reservations, books purchased, Web sites visited, etc. All of this data existed in silence. No easy way until now to benefit from the data; but the silos are coming down. Google, Yahoo, Facebook, Mozilla collecting data. Trend is that big wave will come to companies that are able to novel and new ways to deliver information by crossing these silos, with implicit data on the Internet. Use social networking data to improve search. Conversion of data exhaust will create value in new and interesting ways. All of the panelists seem to agree that this is a key trend. McNamee says he hopes Kopelman is not right, given the privacy concerns that are involved. The issue is providing implied consent to follow the bread crumbs, McNamee says. Schoendorf says this is an under 25 issue. McNamee notes that the trouble is that not only does Facebook know what I’m doing, but the Chinese government also knows. Khosla says it is an opportunity, not a problem. “Privacy is a red herring,” Khosla says. “There are rules and laws and ways to address the privacy issue.” Data reduction is an important need, Khosla says. He has a secretary to do it. Khosla says it is a critical need and huge opportunity.
• 4. From Roger McNamee: Betting on smart phones: The mobile device migration to smart phones from features phones will produce even greater disruption than PC industry moving from character mode to graphical interface. Used to be just Palm and Research in Motion. (Note that McNamee’s firm is a large investor in Palm.) What you are really doing, is put in real software environments, with applications layer that separates network from physical device. Phones far more pervasive than PCs. Will take out Motorola. One of LG, Samsung or Sony Ericsson as well. Will be intensely disruptive. And it will hurt Microsoft. You can not make a great consumer product with unbundled operating system. It will be incredibly disrupted. In five years, half of what we think of as phones will do something far more profound than what we think of a phone as doing. Design centers will fragment. An Amazon Kindle is a smartphone, with 3G network behind it. A life changer for people who use it. Will turn billion unit a year industry on its head. Assume Nokia, Apple, RIMM will do really well. (And Palm will do great, he says.)
• 5. From Joe Schoendorf: Water tech will replace global warming as a global priority. The world is running our of usable water and will kill millions more in our lifetime than global warming. Darfur could go down as the first water war of the 21st century. And with 2 million deaths, might not make the top 10 list. One billion of 6 billion people do not have healthy water. We’re losing close to 1 million people a year under 5 years old due to dirty water. Imagine a 60 year drought in this state. Within 15 years, will be up to 3 billion people with a water problem. 70% of water used for agriculture; 90% for developed countries. If nano technology can work, and can figure out desalinization, can prevent many wars over the next 30 years. Missing the Al Gore for water. Khosla agrees it is important, but not that it is more important than global warming. Global warming is causal, Khosla says. In 25-30 years, will be rarer commodity than oil, and more valuable. Khosla says he is invested in two water companies, and looking for more. Schoendorf notes that T. Boone Pickens is selling oil companies and buying water companies.
• 6. Jurvetson: Evolution trumps design. Many interesting unsolved problems in computer science, nanotech, and synthetic biology require construction of complex systems. Evolutionary algorithms are a powerful alternative to traditional design, blossoming first in neural networks and now in microbial engineering. Near-term trend: year or two, components of microbial engineering products will involve some form of evolution. Design for evolution. Has been used in neural networks. In microbial work, cripple a microbe, so it can do the one thing it does better and better. To make industrial chemicals. Applied to analog circuit design. In the future, artificial intelligence. Most of the panel seem to have no idea what Jurvetson was talking about, really.
• 7. Khosla: Fossilizing fossil energy. Oil and coal will have trouble competing with biofuels. 99% of discussion on the topic is completely irrelevant to the topic. In 4-5 years will have production proof that can sell biofuel at well below $2 a gallon at today’s tax structure and no subsidy. Can’t imagine how big oil can stay in business if that is an alternative. Zero land needed to replace 100% of our gasoline. The other major issue is electrical power generation, which is coal and natural gas. One of his companies signed deal for 175 MW solar plant at costs below natural gas. Cheaper and less subject to commodity pricing. All of the panelists agree on that one.
• 8. Kopelman: Venture Capital 2.0. Venture capital has underwritten most of the transformative software and Internet companies over last 20 years. Changing economics will have dramatic impact on the venture capital industry, in particular for software and IT. Typical $400 million fund, to get 20% return, have to triple, and return $1.5 billion. Hitting point where we are seeing larger fund sizes. What happens: some real changes as the institutions see the returns. Wonder how much of expansion into green tech, nano, is people running to something, not from something. Khosla agrees on software specifically, but not innovation generally. McNamee agrees with the thesis; the issue for software and IT is very real, but does not have anything to do with “venture.” The opportunities - IT is an enterprise thing - not going to make kind of investments in IT that would them to be interesting businesses. VC industry is diversifying away from industry where returns are poor. Schoendorf says “he could not be more wrong.” About 90% of all venture returns made by about 5% of the people; global supply of capital has kept pouring in. Returns come from a very small set. He says we are going to have a renaissance in software, with new billion-dollar companies created. More opportunity for great kinds of business plans.
• 9. McNamee: Within 5 years, everything that matters to you will be available to you on a device that fits on your belt or in your purse. Massive shift in Internet traffic from PCs to smaller devices. You should all get a Kindle, and study this thing, Roger says. Apple has it in the long run, wrong. Won’t be about watching created content, it will be about creating content. Within 10 years, more Internet traffic from your person than all other locations put together. Maybe actually more transaction, as opposed to bits, he corrects, given HD video traffic over the Internet at home. Khosla thinks the trend is already here. He does agree that the device will be transformative. McNamee says he is astonished how surprised people were by the iPhone and the Kindle. “Imagine all the other stuff you aren’t thinking about,” he says.
• 10. Schoendorf: 80% of the world population will carry mobile Internet devices within 5-10 years. Dial-tone is going to be gone. By next year, people will put micro cells in your house. China Mobile has 500 million billable lines. Within 5-10 years will hit 5 billion global wireless phones. Jurvetson thinks 80% is simply too high; he noes that a quarter of the world’s population has no electricity. They will concentrate in the richest nations, Jurvetson says.

And that’s it. Lots of mobile phone predictions. Green energy. Water. And more phones.

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